Dear David,

MVRV approach is one of the best methods to understand the crypto markets and especially relevant for Bitcoin. Coinmetrics.io ( here at https://coinmetrics.io/realized-capitalization/ ) provides a charting tool for it and has a reference to your article. I’ve checked the results and your expectation of slipping below 1.0 treshold has happened. Combined with what I’ve written ( here at Medium https://medium.com/coinmonks/in-defense-of-the-bitcoin-network-better-news-and-worse-prices-is-a-good-signal-bde5ba479eb )MVRV approach gives a meaninful probability for bottom formation.

Going forward, here are some comments:

1. Will the bottom formation increase in time or not? I think the answer lies partly in the much hyped institutional money. Without that, most or all of 2019 could well be spent making that bottom.
2. I would expect below 1 treshold to hold as you do. One caveat would be that if there is a structural shift in the composition of Bitcoin holders, especially to the insitutional side, bottom treshold could shift (up?).
3. Even without a structural shift, I would agree that the upper treshold would be compressed a bit as you expect.

Great work, thanks..